Critical Bitcoin Comment from Economics Professor: Get Ready for the Terrible Scenario

As the current Bitcoin (BTC) rally leaves enthusiasm behind, new warnings continue to come from academics and analysts.

China-Taiwan Crisis and Russia's Dangerous Nuclear Game

Steven Sidley, professor of economics at the University of Johannesburg and head of the university's blockchain and cryptocurrency research institute, and Ran Neuner, CEO of Onchain Capital, made striking statements about Bitcoin (BTC) in an interview with leading media platform Kitco News. .

According to both experts, the worst days of kipto winter are over. Sidley stated that in the current bear cycle, Bitcoin has seen its bottom level.

Sidley, who has recently become popular in the industry for his analyzes on cryptocurrencies, is also a consultant to investment company Bridge Capital Future. According to the academic, the market has survived the greatest chaos, but there are still risky factors ahead.

China's invasion of Taiwan could hit both the global economy and cryptocurrencies, crippling the supply fig. In addition, Russia's attack on nuclear power plants and the war gaining a serious dimension may push the European economy into a deep uncertainty. According to the BBC, those around the Zaporozhye NPP in Ukraine are preparing for the worst-case scenario. The economist recommends that these two events be followed closely.

Bear Market: Bitcoin Doesn't React to Good News

Neuner pointed to Bitcoin's 200-week moving average to support his claim that BTC will continue to rally. The 200-week moving average is the longest measure of Bitcoin's uptrend. Bitcoin's spot price has fallen below this metric only three times: in 2015, in 2020, and in 2022. According to Neuner, every time Bitcoin's spot price hit the moving average, it rallied and brought huge returns to investors. When it fell below the 200-week moving average, macroeconomic conditions were generally effective.

Neuner said that investors should watch the “macro environment” that can affect the Bitcoin price. According to the expert, as long as macroeconomic uncertainty continues, a permanent rally is not possible. The odds that the Fed will raise interest rates by 50 basis points or 75 basis points are about 50-50 percent. According to Neuner, the coldest days of winter are over. Asset management firm BlackRock recently announced a partnership with Coinbase to provide Bitcoin access to institutional customers.

However, this did not have a significant impact on the Bitcoin price. According to Neuner, in a bear market, the market is not reacting to the good news and we are currently in a hard bear market. The executive said that after the BlackRock announcement, the price of Bitcoin did not gain momentum due to negative regulatory developments.